By Dr Debesh Bhowmik
The World Economic Outlook in April 2022 of IMF reported that the average annual growth rate of output of the world economy during 2004-2013 was 4.1% which was reduced to 3.6% per annum during 2014-2019 and due to covid-19, the rate was dwindled to -3.1% in 2020 which was revived to 6.1% per year but the Russia -Ukraine war induced to cut the rate to 3.6% per annum automatically and it is a shock to the world economy.
The IMF has projected the world output growth rate at 3.3% only in 2027 i.e., it may face the trend of recession. The most suffers are the advanced economies including USA, Euro Area, Japan and other advanced countries. During 2004-2013, the average output growth rate was accounted as 1.8% per year in USA in comparison to 0.9% and 0.7% for Euro Area and Japan respectively.
USA improved marginally to 2.1% during 2014-2019, similar with Euro Area to 1.9% and Japan with 0.8% respectively. But all of them showed negative growth rates of output during covid-19 period showing -3.4%, -6.4% and -4.5% in 2020 respectively, yet all three recovered the growth rate in 2021 but again fell down in 2022 for war and projected growth rates of 1.7%,1.3% and 0.4% which are quite below expectation that can impact other economies inversely.
On the other hand, the emerging and developing Asia, the emerging and developing Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have been performing better since these groups recorded growth rates of 8.5%,4.3%,4.0%,5.0%, and 5.6% respectively during 2004-2013 which were changed to 6.46%,2.45%,0.63%,2.91% and 3.18% respectively during 2014-2019-quite reduced rates. All these regional groups faced negative growth rate for covid-19 for 2020 and also recovered a quite bit of progress of 6.8% and again reduced growth rate of 3.8% for war but all projected 4.3% per annum annually in 2027 on an average.
The projected growth rate of per capita output of advanced countries was accounted for 2.0% in 2027 as compared with 1.0% during 2004-2013,1.61% during 2014-2019,-5.0% in 2020,5% in 2021,3% in 2022-all are happening as usual for above mentioned reasons. The emerging market and developing economies, the emerging market and the middle-income economies and low-income developing economies have been recorded high per capita output growth rates and also projected reasonable rates of expectations as 3.2%,3.5% and 3.4% respectively for 2027 as compared with 4.7%,4.9% and 3.6% respectively during 2004-2013.Therefore,it is no doubt that the emerging developing countries and other developing countries have been achieving higher growth rates of output and per capita output than the developed countries.
